USMCA was supposed to lock in preferential market access between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The current U.S. tariff posture is testing just how durable that framework is. As of February 24, 2026, U.S. imports from Mexico are subject to a 10% tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, valid for up to 150 days. The measure includes a carve-out for goods that qualify under USMCA rules of origin — meaning products that meet the agreement’s domestic content requirements can avoid the levy — but that exception does not cover everything crossing the border.

July 2026 marks a critical inflection point for North American trade. Under Article 34.7 of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the three signatories are required to meet on the sixth anniversary of the agreement’s entry into force to conduct a formal review and determine whether to extend USMCA’s operation. That deadline is now months away, and the political environment surrounding it is anything but settled. USMCA replaced NAFTA on July 1, 2020, preserving most of its predecessor’s architecture while updating key provisions.